Real-time model uses market-implied rate and Negative Binomial uncertainty to show exactly which brackets are mispriced.
Markets price aggregate sentiment. Our model uses the market's own implied rate as its forecast — then applies a statistically rigorous Negative Binomial distribution to compute exact bracket probabilities.
Instead of relying on historical averages, the model derives the expected posting rate directly from the market's implied mean count — automatically capturing regime changes the market has already priced in.
Remaining tweets are modeled as Negative Binomial — not Normal. This correctly handles rate uncertainty: early in the market the distribution is wide, late in the market it collapses exactly onto the current count.
Each bracket is labeled: HIGH EDGE, DIVERGED, SLIGHT, or FAIR VALUE. The +3h column shows where the edge is growing or shrinking right now.
Post count pulled from xtracker every 5 min. The market's implied mean is used to derive the expected posting rate — automatically reflecting any behavioral regime change the market has priced in.
Remaining tweets modeled as Negative Binomial with market-calibrated dispersion. Early in the market the distribution is wide; as count accumulates and λ→0, it collapses exactly onto the current bracket.
Each bracket shows model probability vs market price, the edge %, ±3h drift, and a divergence label. Trajectory chart shows how model confidence evolves toward close.
Markets that are close to resolving move dramatically on a single post. Pro subscribers get browser notifications the instant Elon or Trump publishes — no app, no delay.
Alerts fire within seconds of a new post — not on a slow poll cycle. You'll know before the market moves.
Get notified for Elon only, Trump only, Tate only, all three, or none. One click to enable, one click to disable.
No app install. Just click "Enable Notifications" in the app and allow when the browser asks. Works in Chrome, Firefox, and Edge.
No account needed for free. Pro unlocks the full model — all signals, all users.
* 7-day free trial, then $19/mo. Cancel anytime. Payments via Whop. Not financial advice.